Temperature and High-Stakes Cognitive Performance: Evidence from the National College Entrance Examination in China

Graff Zivin, J, Y Song, Q Tang, and P Zhang, “Temperature and High-Stakes Cognitive Performance: Evidence from the National College Entrance Examination in China,” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 104 (2020): 102365.

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We provide the first nation-wide estimates of the effects of temperature on high-stakes cognitive performance in a developing country using data from the National College Entrance Examination (NCEE) in China. The NCEE is one of the most important institutions in China and affects millions of families. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in temperature during the exam period within counties (2C/3.6F) decreases the total test score by 0.68%, or 5.83% of a standard deviation, with effects concentrated on the highest performing students. This suggests that temperature plays an important role in high-stakes cognitive performance and has potentially far-reaching impacts for the career sand lifetime earnings of students.